Federal Election 101

Your preliminary guide to what all those annoying ads are about.

By David Hains

Photo by Sanjin Avdicevic from the Torontoist Flickr Pool.

In anticipation of the election, there has been an overwhelming amount of polling in recent weeks. With a couple of outliers indicating the possibility of a Conservative or NDP majority, most polls show an unusually tight race between the three principal parties.

We take a quick look at what to expect from the election, and what it might mean for Toronto.

This federal election campaign will be 78 days, the longest since an 89-day campaign 143 years ago. It nearly doubles the average campaign length since 1997 of 40 days, with all but one campaign lasting 36 or 37 days.

So why is there an abnormally long campaign? Are Canadians just that thirsty for democracy in August? Actually, it’s mostly about money.

While there were previously hard caps on campaign spending, recent changes to the Elections Act make spending amounts proportional to the length of the campaign. For longer campaigns, this gives an advantage to the party that has raised the most money. In this case, it’s the Conservative Party, which championed the legislative change in 2014. The Globe provides an excellent explainer on the various changes to the Elections Act.

Polls show a particularly tight race, with the Conservatives and NDP trading the lead depending on the day and pollster, and the Liberals usually coming in a relatively close third. If this closeness persists, it will be difficult for any party to win a majority government of 170 or more seats. But a lot can change. Polls should be understood as imperfect snapshots in time. They have their usefulness and limits, but a lot of the day-to-day polls can be read as noise.

Much can change between now and October; in the first half of the 2011 campaign the NDP’s numbers did not look particularly impressive, but then everything came together for their strongest showing ever.

A Guide to Understanding Political Polls

Toronto and the GTA will get more attention in this election, as all three parties try to defend and flip local seats that are key to leading the next Parliament.

There will be the high-profile match-ups, like incumbent Liberal Adam Vaughan who is up against former MP Olivia Chow in the newly created Spadina-Fort York riding.

Former Police Chief Bill Blair will try to pick off an NDP seat for the Liberals in Scarborough, and the Conservatives will try to hold onto their handful of seats in the inner suburbs, and especially in the GTA. Look for lots of trips from the party leaders to Toronto, and feel free to ask them questions at your neighbourhood BBQ. Us journalists don’t always get to.

Of particular importance to Toronto is the state of housing and transit. Canada’s most economically important city always has difficulty getting infrastructure dollars out of the federal government—Toronto isn’t exactly popular in the rest of the country—but this election represents as good a chance as any.

On housing, TCHC, the second largest social housing provider in North America, faces a $3.6-billion capital repair backlog over the next 10 years, and a record-long waiting list that can take up to eight years.

For its part, the TTC faces an unfunded maintenance and repair backlog, and struggles annually with ridership growth and its associated costs. But historically, the federal government has only invested in capital transit projects—that is, money to build something new, not to operate existing infrastructure. John Tory’s SmartTrack, although in preliminary stages, may get mentioned by parties vying for Toronto votes.

The parties haven’t released their platforms yet, but those will come out in the course of the campaign. Of course, you can check out the first debate tomorrow night for what that may look like.

Regardless of who you vote for, you should do so. Voting makes you more attractive. It’s science.

The rules have changed on what you need to vote. You must be registered, and you need to show ID. It’s a bit more involved than in previous elections, so make sure you’re prepared.