Liveblog: Municipal Election 2014
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Liveblog: Municipal Election 2014

Results, analysis, fact-checks, and more. Follow along as Toronto elects its new mayor and city council.

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Click on any ward to see council results. Colours indicate which mayoral candidate won in each ward:map legend 2

We’ve been in campaign mode so long we can barely remember what anything else feels like, but today Torontonians finally went to the polls, and tonight we’ll learn what the last ten months of debates, slogans, and surprises have yielded. Follow along as the results come in.


John Tory and his family celebrate at his Liberty Grand victory party:
ToryandFamily
(Daniel Bitonti/Torontoist)

9:48 PM: A look at the new councillors: Rob Ford replaces Doug Ford in Ward 2, Stephen Holyday replaces Peter Leon and Doug Holyday in Ward 3, John Campbell replaces Gloria Lindsay Luby in Ward 4, Justin Di Ciano replaces James Maloney and Peter Milczyn in Ward 5, Christin Carmichael Greb replaces Karen Stintz in Ward 16, Joe Cressy replaces Ceta Ramkhalawansingh and Adam Vaughan in Ward 20, Jon Burnside defeats incumbent John Parker in Ward 26, Jim Karygiannis replaces Mike Del Grande in Ward 39. On balance, it’s a decidedly more conservative council than the past term. (David Hains)

9:40 PM: What has John Tory heard loud and clear from Toronto? I’m not seeing anything loud or clear. We want change but not enough to not defeat our incumbents. (Daren Foster)

9:37 PM: John Tory now delivering his victory speech. “As you new mayor, I will work with the council that you elected tonight in moving Toronto not left, not right, but forward.”

9:27 PM: As far as pollsters go, they were pretty accurate. Mainstreet Technologies and Ipsos-Reid essentially tied for the most accurate, and Forum was one percentage point outside of their margin of error. (David Hains)

3:43 PM: Olivia Chow at her election-night party:
20141027 OC 069
(Harry Choi/Torontoist)

9:23 PM: Doug Ford: “Together we have changed the political landscape in Toronto.” Fact check: This is entirely true. (David Hains)

9:23 PM: So people were fed up with the mayoral antics at City Hall but not those at city council. (Daren Foster)

9:19 PM: Doug Ford now delivering his concession speech. “Rob and I fought side by side to give taxpayers a voice at City Hall.”

9:13 PM: It looks like John Parker will be the only incumbent to lose. The two-term councillor was known for his quick wit, love of Winston Churchill, and the statue outside his office of a woman feeding pigeons. (David Hains)

9:06 PM: CBC is reporting the preliminary voter turnout as 64 per cent, which is a really strong number. (David Hains)

8:57 PM: Global commentators argue that Rob Ford hi-jacking John Tory’s night, and that he is hogging the spotlight. All the while Global TV cameras are fixed on Rob Ford. (David Hains)

8:56 PM: “We gotta start working today for November… of 2018.” Get ready for four years of nonstop campaigning from the cancer on this city that is the Ford brothers. (As opposed to the cancer that is Rob Ford’s cancer.) (Christopher Bird)

8:56 PM: Rob Ford: “I guarantee in four more years you’re going to see another example of the Ford family never, ever giving up.” (David Hains)

8:53 PM: Rob Ford’s victory speech. “We take a hands-on approach to the smallest problems.” Left unsaid: his total inability to deal with big problems. (Christopher Bird)

8:51 PM: With 23 of 24 polls reporting, Giorgio Mammoliti leads by 11 per cent and will win his seventh term in office. This is a good time to order another drink. (David Hains)

8:49 PM: Have I said yet just how badly this is shaping up? Incumbency reigns. (Daren Foster)

8:48 PM: In a 22 person field, Joe Cressy leads by a whopping 32 per cent. He is one of the few new progressive councillors, and he will likely be part of the unofficial opposition to John Tory. He’s also BFFs with Mike Layton. (David Hains)

8:47 PM: Olivia Chow giving a gracious concession speech. To John Tory: “We will help you.” To Doug Ford: “Despite our differences, I admire your determination.” (Christopher Bird)

8:43 PM: Michael Ford wins his school trustee race because he is a Ford and because, I dunno, voters really dug his blank stare? (Christopher Bird)

8:38 PM: Crying woman on CP24 explains that she’ll have to move out of Toronto because Tory will tax her to death. Nobody tell her property taxes are higher almost everywhere else! (Christopher Bird)

8:41 PM: With 23 of 29 polls reporting, Ana Bailao has a slim 300 vote lead over her main competition, Alex Mazer. (David Hains)

8:41 PM: Gary Crawford did better in 2014 than he did in 2010. All he did was paint a picture and play drums. (Daren Foster)

8:40 PM: Over 90 per cent of incumbents win re-election, but John Parker is not one of them. He has lost his Ward 26 seat to Jon Burnside, who was endorsed by John Tory. It also means one less vote on council against the Scarborough subway proposal. (David Hains)

8:35 PM: With 71 of 77 polls reporting Manna Wong leads incumbent trustee Sam Sotiropoulos by 8 per cent. Goodbye Trustee Sam, may we never hear from you again. (David Hains)

8:34 PM: Even though Tory has been declared the winner by all major networks, the atmosphere in his campaign headquarters is subdued. No cheering. Maybe they don’t believe how close the race is. (Desmond Cole)

8:32 PM: Global declares Tory the winner. (Patrick Metzger) CBC declares John Tory the winner.

3:43 PM: John Tory supporters cheer at the Liberty Grand as the CBC projects a Tory win in the municipal election.
SupportersCheering
(Daniel Bitonti /Torontoist)

8:32 PM: With 71 of 77 polls reporting Manna Wong leads incumbent trustee Sam Sotiropoulos by 8 per cent. Goodbye Trustee Sam, may we never hear from you again.
Global has called the election for John Tory, with the candidate leading Doug Ford by 3 per cent. (David Hains)

8:27 PM: Rob Ford, admitted crack smoker and consorter with gang members, butt of late night jokes, and stricken with serious illness, wins his ward handily. (Patrick Metzger)

8:26 PM: In the trustee race, Ausma Malik has a healthy lead in the Ward 10 Trinity-Spadina race with about half of the results in. (David Hains)

8:25 PM: CP24 declares Tory new Mayor.

8:23 PM: Rob and Doug’s nephew Michael Ford looks like he will win; he is doubling incumbent John Hasting’s vote total for the Ward 1 trustee race. (David Hains)

8: PM: Reaction from Chow supporters to the news that she is trailing Tory and Ford by a large number. 20141027 OC 015
(Harry Choi/Torontoist)

8:23 PM: In Ward 44, Ron Moeser is holding off multiple challengers with 23 of 37 of the polls reporting. Jennifer Mckelvie is within 1.3 per cent. (David Hains)

8:22 PM: Mike Del Grande (Ward 39, Scarborough-Agincourt), who played the role as the Eeyore of council for the past 14 years, has been elected as school trustee to the Toronto Catholic District School Board to represent Ward 7, Scarborough-Agincourt. He replaces his son John, who declined to run again. (David Hains)

8:22 PM: Early results show Rob Ford with an insurmountable lead in the ward 2 council race. It appears he will remain in elected office. The saga continues. (Desmond Cole)

8:21 PM: Cristin Carmichael-Greb leading strongly in Ward 16. (Christopher Bird)

8:20 PM: Jim Karygiannis wins in Ward 39 as we march towards the Worst City Council Ever. (Christopher Bird)

8:20 PM: Vincent Crisanti will return for another four years of doing absolutely nothing of value in Ward 1. (Christopher Bird)

8:19 PM: With 24 of 34 polls reporting, Budget Chief Frank Di Giorgio leads former MP John Nunziata by less than 2 per cent. (David Hains)

8:17 PM:With 30 of 39 polls reporting, John Campbell leads Niels Christensen by more than 1000 votes in Ward 4. They’re competing to replace longtime councillor Gloria Lindsay Luby, who endorsed Christensen. (David Hains)

8:17 PM: Maria Augimeri holds Ward 9. Apparently all those signs Gus Cusimano put up didn’t help. (Christopher Bird)

8:16 PM: John Campbell, who avid political watchers were expecting to win his ward and then be terrible, has won his ward. Terribleness likely forthcoming. (Christopher Bird)

8:16 PM: Early returns shows John Tory leading over Doug Ford 39.3 per cent to 35 per cent. Olivia Chow has 22.6 per cent. (David Hains)

8:12 PM: Elections are as eagerly anticipated by polling companies as they are by political candidates. They compete to get the most accurate results, largely so they can publicize the fact that they are the most accurate.

Their predictions are as follows:

Forum Research: Tory 44 per cent, Ford 32 per cent, Chow 21 per cent, with a margin of error of 3.12 per cent.

Ipsos-Reid: Tory 42 per cent, Ford 31 per cent, Chow 25 per cent, with a margin of error of 3.2 per cent.

Mainstreet Technologies: Tory 38 per cent, Ford 32 per cent, Chow 20 per cent, with a margin of error of 1.64 per cent.


Related:

Interactive: Understanding political polls


(David Hains)

8:09 PM: We’re expecting first results momentarily, but people who were in line to vote at 8 p.m., when the polls closed, will be allowed to vote. (Desmond Cole)

8:06 PM:It’s only been five minutes, and I’m already reached my yearly quota of Stephen LeDrew’s folksy wisdom. (Christopher Bird)

8:03 PM: Previous voter turnout stats: 1997: 45.6 per cent, 2000: 36.1 per cent, 2003: 38.3 per cent, 2006: 39.3 per cent, 2010: 50.55 per cent (David Hains)
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7:59 PM: The Scarborough Mirror has just reported that Doug Ford is telling supporters gathered at his mothers’ house to stay positive, no matter tonight’s result. Perhaps not the most confident message. (Desmond Cole)

7:57 PM: On CP24, Ari Goldkind says we need to “start with a clean slate and let the last four years go.” Somewhere, Giorgio Mammoliti nods emphatically. (Christopher Bird)

7:57 PM: Earlier today, Ford campaign staffer Graeme McEachern, who previously worked in the mayor’s office, made his election prediction on Twitter:

Does McEachern, who has referred to Ford critics as communists, have psychic powers? Find out soon. (David Hains)

7:55 PM: Because of Toronto’s electronic voting, the mayoral winner will be announced very quickly after the polls close at 8:00. In 2006, mayoral candidate Jane Pitfield was caught off guard when, on live TV at 8:01, CityTV told her she lost to David Miller. In 2010, Rob Ford was declared the winner at 8:08. So don’t walk away at 7:59 thinking that this will be a drawn out process like the federal election. (David Hains)

7:51 PM: We asked our panel the following question: What is the most important thing the new mayor will need to do if elected? Here’s what they had to say.

Immediately declare an overwhelming mandate and kill some high profile project that’s already underway. (Daren Foster)

The budget shortfall. It’s an immediate and huge problem the new mayor will have to deal with right away – and there won’t be a lot of time to find “efficiencies.” It’s going to mean cuts and taxes in some combination. Which, given how dishonest all of the candidates have been about how much it costs to run this city, bodes poorly. (Christopher Bird)

7:40 PM: Doug Ford arrives at his mother’s house to watch the election results.
photo (40)
(Christopher Drost/Torontoist)

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(Christopher Drost/Torontoist)

7:30 PM: There’s still less than half an hour left in which to make it out to the polls.

Ward 2 (Etobicoke North) is home to one of this election’s key council races. Back when Rob Ford was running for mayor and councillor Doug Ford was plotting his escape from City Hall, Doug’s nephew Mikey Ford (né Stirpe) stepped into the race to carry on the Ford legacy.

That all changed when Rob backed out of the mayoral race and decided to run for councillor in Ward 2, Mikey backed out of the Ward 2 race and decided to run for school trustee in Ward 1, and Doug backed out of backing out of politics to run for Mayor of Toronto.

Rob is up against progressive candidate Andray Domise, who entered the race before even Mikey did (and whom Torontoist heartily endorses). But Rob, owing to his immense and apparently unshakeable popularity in Ward 2, is nevertheless the favourite to win. (Graeme Bayliss)

Torontoist EIC Hamutal Dotan will be commenting on the results tonight on CBC Radio, and staff writer Desmond Cole will offering analysis on Global TV, starting at 8 p.m.

3:00 PM: Andray Domise campaigning today.
(Christopher Drost/Torontoist)
 MGL0650

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