(Needed for majority: 54)
- Liberal: 53 (Last session: 71)
- Progressive Conservative: 37 (Last session: 26)
- New Democrat: 17 (Last session: 10)
- Green: 0 (Last session: 0)
12:18 AM: We’ll have more and more nuanced thoughts about tonight’s results in the morning. But for now: good night!
12:13 AM: Answer: as a win. Upbeat, looking relaxed (relieved?). “Liberalism is alive and well in Ontario,” he proclaims.
12:01 AM: McGuinty speech in a minute. Everyone curious about how he’ll position this result: better than feared, not as good as hoped for.
11:55 PM: Jagmeet Singh is naturally charismatic. He;s going to go far.
11:48 PM: Talking heads on CP24 are saying that Dalton McGuinty should basically come out for his speech and say “we got our butts kicked, and I’m so so sorry.” This is why talking heads don’t actually work in politics any more.
11:45 PM: The NDP did what it realistically could: a significant increase in seats, a necessary partner for the minority Liberals, and flipped some seats in the GTA (notably: Davenport in Toronto and Bramalea-Gore-Malton in the 905).
11:43 PM: CBC IS CALLING THE ELECTION FOR A LIBERAL MINORITY.
11:42 PM: They ran the cover of tomorrow’s Toronto Sun [on SunTV]. Headline is “Welcome to Hell.”
11:41 PM: There’ll be fistshaking and face-saving compromises but that’s about it for at least two years.
11:41 PM: …and Horwath isn’t going to let Hudak trigger an election where she thinks he’ll win, because she’s not an idiot.
11:39 PM: More of the same. McGuinty will do what he was doing and the other parties will bitch and posture but they don’t have enough differences between them to bet an election on them [if the Liberals end up with a minority]. Hudak isn’t going to risk an election over chain gangs or smart metres and Horwath is in a great position and not likely to do better.
11:39 PM: So, what do these results mean so far?
11:26 PM: It’s official: all former Toronto mayoral candidates running in this election have lost again. Sarah Thomson and Rocco Rossi have both been declared defeated.
11:21 PM: Andrea Horwath, who ran a pretty freaking negative campaign, says her voters voted for “hope.” Okay, Andrea. I actually don’t think the NDP campaign was negative; it was just based on fantasy .
11:19 PM: After approximately 400 minutes of folksy guitar music and video of slogans about change, Andrea Horwath seems to finally be up to making a speech.
10:59 PM: Hudak: “It is very clear that the people of Ontario have sent a very strong message that they want a change in direction.” Says nice things about Andrea Horwath. Turns to policy, focuses only on fiscal issues. Learned his lesson on social issues, perhaps.
10:57 PM: Hudak giving his speech now. An interesting choice given that we don’t know if the Liberals have a majority or minority government yet—though it’s fair to say the Liberals will almost certainly look to the NDP if they need a partner much more than they’d seek Tory support.
10:50 PM: Rosario Marchese (NDP) now has a 452 vote lead over Sarah Thomson (Lib) in Trinity-Spadina. Bet: if he wins and runs again, he’ll actually campaign next time. In Davenport, Jonah Schein has a 428 vote lead for the NDP. He’s one of the NDP’s great hopes for fliping longtime Grit ridings orange.
Riding: Bramalea Gore Malton
10:38 PM: Nailbiter ridings right now: Thunder Bay-Atikokan (Lib/NDP), Sudbury (Lib/NDP), Glengarry Prescott-Russell (Lib/PC), Niagara Falls (Lib/PC), Kitchener Centre (Lib/PC), Bramalea-Gore-Malton (NDP/Lib).
10:36 PM: We’re probably going to see a bit of a lull now as everyone waits for the tight races—which will determine whether the Liberals are returned with a minority or majority—get called. Differences of a few dozen votes might matter now.
10:36 PM: Some bitter Tory ranting about how taxes will now continue to rise and our children will pay for it. Of course the Tories promised to increase spending by almost the same amount.
I wonder sometimes if people even read their own platforms.
10:27 PM: Trinity-Spadina now the biggest nailbiter in Toronto; Sarah Thomson leading by a few hundred votes. Eleven seats in total still not declared.
10:25 PM: Really, is anybody more plreased by Rocco Rossi losing his race than I am? Rossi spent a decade being a power behind the throne in Liberal politics, and then threw it all away because he decided what people really wanted to vote for was a slightly crazy and weird centre-right party-jumper. His self-importance and ego deserve to be stomped all over repeatedly. Really, I just want to see him run for something else next and lose that, too. Is anybody electing a dogcatcher anytime soon? “Rocco Rossi will catch all the dogs and then MURDER THEM! Vote Rossi! Bocce balls!”
10:19 PM: “This is a tweet from Sarah Thomson herself!” STOP.
10:18 PM: GTA results: Right now, 32-6-5 Lib/PC/NDP. Fortress Toronto seems to have held.
10:16 PM: Another municipal implication: Colle’s son is Josh Colle, councillor for Ward 15 (Eglinton-Lawrence), and he’s been keeping very much under the radar. Will his father’s victory mean he starts coming out more firmly as a centrist? (Speculation: no, because he also has to keep his head down in order to keep working on the Lawrence Heights revitalization, which Ford doesn’t love. Colle, I don’t think, will rock any boats if it means keeping that project going.)
10:14 PM: Rocco Rossi bites the dust, having lost to Mike Colle (according to CP24):
Riding: York Centre
10:11 PM: On the upside, cake:
10:09 PM: NDP HQ as the Liberal victory is announced:
10:05 PM: Everyone who keeps saying how much voters don’t care for Dalton McGuinty and also represents a party that got fewer votes than his needs a time out. Cause they may be right, but we all like them even less. They should spend less of their time calling attention to this fact.
10:05 PM: CP24’s social media expert explains that Tim Hudak got twice as many likes on Facebook as Dalton McGuinty. NOBODY LIKES DALTON McGUINTY!
10:05 PM: SunTV: “We now have a huge audience watching because the Leafs beat Montreal 2-0.”
Riding: Missisasuga Brampton South
10:00 PM: CBC saying goodbye to hockey viewers after breaking into the game for a few minutes. Reminder: our national broadcaster chose to put hockey on their main network instead of this. All due respect to hockey, but really?
9:58 PM: Worth noting: popular vote much closer, still, that seat count.
9:54 PM: PC spokesperson: “We wanted to focus on change and pocketbook issues.” This is why they spent the last few days of the election complaining about cross-dressing schoolchildren.
9:51 PM: How many more elections do we need to go through before the media gets over trumpeting the fact that they are on Twitter. Cause really, we get it. YOU ARE COOL AND MODERN AND STUFF.
9:50 PM: Social media expert Gina Phillips is back and showing off her Tweetdeck.
Riding: Ottawa South
9:47 PM: At NDP hq in Hamilton, supporters are clapping along with every NDP seat won. Mood is chipper, but that’s also due to the libations at cash bar.
9:46 PM: Some Dipper explains that the NDP will help you if you’re “middle class, working class or lower class.” Is there a difference now between the latter two? I was not informed.
9:44 PM: The Liberal “kitchen party’s” applause for the Dalton re-election could politely be described as “tepid.” NOBODY LIKES DALTON McGUINTY! (The NDP “kitchen party” is actually in a bar. The NDP know how to party.)
9:44 PM: On SunTV, Christina Blizzard is slightly smug that she picked the right horse. Brian Lilley is smugger still, saying he called a Hudak loss back in July.
9:43 PM: Sarah Thomson is leading Rosario Marchese by a handful of votes.
9:42 PM: Very curious whether Lorenzo’s win means his wife Michelle, Toronto councillor for Ward 35 (Scarborough Southwest), will now feel free to stand up to Rob Ford more now. (She’s so far voted with the administration a fair bit of the time.)
Riding: Scarborough Southwest
9:41 PM: Rocco Rossi now leading. BOOOOO.
Riding: Don Valley West
Riding: St. Paul’s
9:39 PM: “This was a man who was political toast” – CBC commentator on McGuinty at the beginning of the campaign.
9:37 PM: CBC also projecting Liberal government.
9:34 PM: CP24 declaring Grit win. Although they aren’t saying if it’s a majority or minority yet.
9:34 PM: Oh for chrissake. CP24 is interviewing young people about how American Idol gets more votes than real elections and what can this teach us? “Well, clearly the answer is to allow 12-year-olds to vote as many times as they like!”
Riding: Hamilton Centre
Riding: Scarborough Centre
Riding: Niagara West—Glanbrook
9:26 PM: Tim Hudak wins his riding! Whatever else happens, we get another four years of having Tim Hudak in office! That means we’ve all already lost a bit!
9:26 PM: Oh my god George Lagogianes is now a CP24 correspondent? How the mighty have fallen. Well, George Lagogianes was never really “mighty.” But he was on MuchMusic when I was a kid. So I guess I’m just old.
9:26 PM: Talking about Rocco Rossi – early on he is behind both Grits and NDP.
9:24 PM: CBC is noting that Twitter “lit up” as soon as the polls close, and that they are keeping their finger on the pulse of social media. CBC: no. This is not what we need from our public broadcaster. Actual reporting please.
9:23 PM: CP24 scroll line: More than 600,000 voters voted in advance polls this election . On the upside: better than last time. On the downside: last time was an historic low .
9:22 PM: SunTV shows their colours—”many would say Dalton McGuinty was the worst premier in the history of Ontario.” Also, in a shocker, Adam Giambrone admits he didn’t vote for Dalton McGuinty.
9:21 PM: Share of popular vote: 35.3% Liberal; 35.1% PCs, 24% NDP, 3% Green.
9:19 PM: Easiest way to be ignorable forever: say that any country is “the new Greece.” Also: comments about how candidate X “isn’t doing very well, but it’s still early” are the most pointless thing when poll counts are still in the teens.
9:19 PM: …and suggests we are turning into the new Greece.
9:18 PM: CP24 reminds us all that the Leafs are up 2-0. BOY THIS ELECTION IS SO EXCITING.
9:17 PM: CBC points out that no Liberal has been returned for a third premiership in over 100 years.
9:12 PM: Someone at the Tory HQ is explaining that social media means “you don’t have to talk to the youth.”
9:11 PM: Popular vote so far: 47% PC, Libs 33% NDP 12% . That’s way out of whack with the polls .
9:09 PM: The scene at NDP central in Hamilton, just before supporters were let in at 9:
9:09 PM: What does this mean for the Northern Heritage Party?
9:07 PM: Sun commentator saying that PCs have advantage because older voters are more likely to vote for them, while younger folks get distracted by hockey games and the like.
9:07 PM: CP24 is bragging about “kitchen parties” where people on iPads will participate somehow in tonight’s election analysis like this is something anybody wants.
9:06 PM: David Akin: “There is plenty of drama tonight” but he seems unconvinced.
9:06 PM: Remember, if you’re in Toronto Centre or Trinity Spadina, you can still vote for another half-hour! (Because you’rea downtown elite.) (Also because there were problems at the polling stations— )
9:05 PM: Right now it’s all chairlifts, tempurpedics, and Christian love on SunTV.
9:04 PM: Rocco Rossi still has zero votes at this point! I am savouring that for now.
9:03 PM: John Robson on SunTV: “This was [Hudak’s] election lose and he seems to have done just that.
What did he do that a lamppost couldn’t have done if you put a blue tie on it.”
9:02 PM: Advance poll results: Tories leading in 3, Liberals in 1.
8:50 PM: CP24 is promising results at 9 even though osme Toronto polls will remain open until 9:30. SOMEBODY CALL ELECTIONS CANADA!