Poll Position: With A Few Days to Go, Ford Takes A Lead

By David Topping

Among decided voters:

• Rob Ford: 43.9%
• George Smitherman: 35.6%
• Joe Pantalone: 15.0%
• all others: 5.5%

STILL UNDECIDED: 15.9%
POLL TAKEN: October 13–21.
SAMPLE SIZE: 507.
MARGIN OF ERROR: +/-4.4%, 19 times out of 20.
CONDUCTED BY: EKOS Research.
NOTES: Other recent polls have put Rob Ford and George Smitherman much closer to one-another than this one does—the two front-runners are 8.3% apart, which EKOS says “point[s] to Mr. Ford as the probable victor” of the Monday municipal election. That’s a win, according to the poll results, that would have been supported by older, less well-educated voters, and, surprisingly, those born outside Canada. The details of the poll are on EKOS’ site and on CBC’s Inside Politics blog. One methodological trick especially worthy of note: the phone survey sampled not only those with land lines, but those with cellphones as well.
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