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Mayoral Electograph: Here Comes the Summer
The Mayoral Electograph—appearing occasionally on Torontoist—combines poll data, statistical analysis, whimsy, and personal bias to assess the fortunes of key mayoral candidates in an easy-to-read USA Today–style chart.
Although—or perhaps because—there haven’t been any entertaining surprises of late, the current crop of candidates seem to be a bit of a disappointment to the media. The Star has been particularly finicky, on the one hand editorializing that David Miller might still be the best choice for mayor and on the other speculating that conservative kingmakers are begging John Tory to reconsider his decision not to run. Still, we got what we got, and Electograph™ tells you where we stand right now.
Rob Ford
Electograph Score: 5/10 (+2)
Ford continues to milk his People’s Fussbudget persona like a dairy farmer on meth, and he’s been showcasing his softer side with burger-flipping, football-coaching, and baby-kissing all over town. While talk of a poll showing Ford in the lead seems to have been only rumour, it’s a dead certainty that he’s at worst not far behind George Smitherman. The recent “Bring Back Tory” musings have got to be hurtful, but since it’s unlikely to happen, Ford remains first choice for the right-leaning voter. Platform-wise, Ford wants lots and lots of subways—everybody likes subways!—and thinks we need to get rid of half the existing council, but details remain thin on the ground. He’s also said to be highly unpopular with his fellow councillors, which would make for a lonely and ineffective mayoralty. Of course Ford’s particular genius is that he doesn’t have to make sense, because it’s his visceral appeal that pulls in the votes.
Giorgio Mammoliti
Electograph Score: 0.25/10 (unchanged)
Giorgio Mammoliti is not going to be mayor—we know it, you know, and he knows it. However, he makes the race more interesting with his off-the-cuff calls for red light districts and armed Green Hornets, and for that we are grateful. Most recently he’s appealed to the codger vote by promising property tax exemptions for low-income seniors, an uncommonly dull initiative which would be improved by by a Mammoliti-esque touch, like the seniors have to put Diesel billboards on top of their homes to qualify. Like Ford, he’s calling for an end to City Hall waste to pay for his ideas.
Joe Pantalone
Electograph Score: 4/10 (+1)
As Miller Lite (the political metaphor, not the beer), Pantalone has a built-in constituency but remains third behind Smitherman and Ford. We give him an extra point in this edition, but to pull out in front he’ll have to shake the impression that he’s old, stodgy, and entrenched in the City Hall establishment that brought us sleeping TTC collectors and civic worker strikes. To that end, Pantalone’s people have been spinning like dervish spiders, and part of his recently released “plan for civic values” would technologize City Hall with web and mobile voting, city council webcasts, and online permitting. Pantalone is a staunch supporter of Transit City, which sets him apart from the crowd carrying shovels and shouting “Subways dammit!” but it’s unclear whether this helps or harms him.
Rocco Rossi
Electograph Score: 1.5/10 (-0.5)
In the ADD world of Twitter-politics, you get to be left, right, centre, or also-ran. Rossi lost his shot at being the identified right-wing candidate when Ford sauntered in, and he lacks the public profile of a George Smitherman that could make him the centrist of choice. Thus far, his policy pronouncements have been vague, annoying stuff like job creation by “leverag[ing] Toronto’s emerging status as a world financial centre” and “creating real economic partnerships with Toronto’s…universities.” On the other hand, he can by no means be counted out—he’s got a solid and growing war chest, and he’s “twice climbed the 7 tallest office towers in Toronto enough times over three days to equal the height of Mt. Everest.” Twice!
George Smitherman
Electograph Score: 7/10 (-2)
Smitherman takes an Electographic beating this week with his campaign seemingly losing steam and the Ford juggernaut threatening to ride right over him. Last week, he released an ambitious plan to improve Toronto’s transportation infrastructure which was lambasted both by the competition and the press as being financially nonviable. He’s been playing down his image as confrontational, even making stilted, embarrassing references to his “Furious George” nickname. Smitherman continues to lead in our assessment principally because it’s hard to imagine Rob Ford actually becoming mayor.
Sarah Thomson
Electograph Score: 1/10 (unchanged)
Let’s be honest—Thomson has gotten a lot of press because she’s the only woman in the race. She was virtually unknown to the public prior to announcing her candidacy, she hasn’t had a lot of money to throw at her campaign, and she hasn’t polled particularly well. She demonstrated either an adorable naiveté or a wicked sense of humour at Tuesday’s debate, suggesting that elections were about ideas and not money. On the plus side, she seems to have applied a little more thought than most of the competition to how she’d fund her transit plans (although still lacking hard numbers). And that still isn’t the same as saying those ideas would work. Regardless, without a little more horsepower behind her, Electograph may have to send her down to Mammoliti country.
Candidates’ illustrations by Brian McLachlan/Torontoist. Electograph design by Marc Lostracco/Torontoist.