Mayoral Electograph: The Morning After
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Mayoral Electograph: The Morning After

The Mayoral Electograph—appearing occasionally on Torontoist—combines poll data, statistical analysis, whimsy, and personal bias to assess the fortunes of key mayoral candidates in an easy-to-read USA Today–style chart.
With Adam Giambrone taking a permanent time-out from the mayoral race to think about what he’s done, the other candidates will be reassessing their chances of capturing the mayor’s eco-friendly, ergonomically designed seat. So is Torontoist, and here’s what we’ve come up with…

Adam Giambrone

Electograph Score: n/a
20100211giambronegreyhead.jpg The large Giambrone-shaped hole on the left is leading to speculation that a new darling of the progressive set could enter the contest. The names being bandied about include budget chief Shelley Carroll, who could reconsider her earlier decision not to run, NDP President and former Parkdale-High Park MP Peggy Nash, and long-time NDP stalwart and current United Way CEO Frances Lankin. We’re even hearing a few people suggest that David Miller might want to reconsider his decision to keep out of the race. Stay tuned…

Giorgio Mammoliti

Electograph Score: 0.5/10 (unchanged)
20100211electographmammoliti.jpg Mammoliti has been diplomatic in not demonstrating undue schadenfreude in the face of his rival’s troubles, although he’s apparently made an unsolicited offer to step in and fix the TTC. Still, it’s going to take more than a minor sex scandal to drive Giambrone voters to Mammoliti, and unless the rest of the candidates show up on Pornotube under the title “City Hall Gangbang,” he’ll still only get the voters who’ve already been clamouring for a little Gomorrah by the lake.

Joe Pantalone

Electograph Score: 2.5/10 (+1.5)
20100211electographpantalone.jpg As a councillor and New Democrat who boasts a good relationship with—albeit not slavish devotion to—David Miller, Pantalone can be expected to pick up a few votes from disappointed Giambronies. However, while the Pantalone narrative of being a City Hall veteran who knows how to get things done has considerable merit, he’s a little low profile and let’s face it, kind of boring. Running the CNE is all well and good but it’s no Transit City. Still, as the default progressive, look for a bump in his poll numbers until and unless a sexier lefty enters the race.

Rocco Rossi

Electograph Score: 2.5/10 (-0.5)
The more the left or progressive or whatever-we’re-calling-it-these-days vote is divided, the more centre-right candidate Rossi stands to benefit. With Giambrone out, if that vote coalesces around Smitherman, Pantalone or someone else, then Rossi’s chances of an October surprise diminish accordingly.

George Smitherman

Electograph Score: 8/10 (+1.5)
20100211electographsmitherman2.jpg The current favourite and a left-of-centre Liberal (we can count Rossi as a right-of-centre Liberal, because Liberals uniquely can occupy just about any point on the political continuum without changing party affiliation), Smitherman will gain the most from Giambrone’s withdrawal. He’s a known quantity who can attract both downtown hipsters riding buses with bikes strapped to the front and folks who spend their rush hours on GO trains complaining about fiscal responsibility.

Sarah Thomson

Electograph Score: 1/10 (+0.5)
Thomson’s “I pulled myself up by my bootstraps and so should everybody else dammit” approach isn’t going to win her many switch votes in the evolving race, but with Giambrone out she’s arguably at least the prettiest of the remaining candidates.

Candidates’ illustrations by Brian McLachlan/Torontoist. Electograph design by Marc Lostracco/Torontoist.