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politics

Poll Position: Ford, Chow, and Tory in Three-Way Tie for First

Statistically, it's a dead heat in the mayoral race.


If a mayoral election were held today, who would you vote for if the
candidates were Rob Ford, Karen Stintz, John Tory, Olivia Chow, and David
Soknacki?

Rob Ford: 27%

Karen Stintz: 6%

John Tory: 28%

Olivia Chow: 29%

David Soknacki: 5%

Some other candidate: 1%

Don’t know: 4%

Poll taken: July 21, 2014
Sample size: 1063
Margin of Error: ±3%, 19 times out of 20
Methodology: Interactive voice response telephone survey
Conducted by: Forum Research [PDF]

NOTES: 59 per cent of those surveyed believe that Rob Ford should resign, but it seems 27 per cent would still be willing to cast a ballot for him—which places him in a statistical tie with Olivia Chow and John Tory in the mayoral race, according to the latest poll from Forum Research. Although his numbers have not changed substantially since the last Forum poll in early July, which pegged his support at 26 per cent, Olivia Chow’s have dropped from 36 per cent to 29 per cent.

Karen Stintz and David Soknacki—weighing in with 6 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively—are, Forum concludes, “not serious contenders.”

Forum’s findings are at odds with those of a Nanos Research poll conducted from July 2 to 5 (and commissioned by a group that apparently employs a former Tory adviser as a lobbyist), which gave John Tory the lead with 39.1 per cent, but Tory’s approval rating remained high, at 67 per cent. Chow had a 54 per cent approval rating, and Rob Ford emerged with the lowest rating of the three—33 per cent—which suggests he might not be well-placed to expand his voter base.

And when no other candidates were named, 28 per cent would vote for the mayor—up from 25 per cent last month. This, according to Forum, is considered “the measure of ‘Ford Nation,’” and poll responses suggest that that nation is distinguished by voters who are youthful (35 per cent), male (34 per cent), Scarborough-dwelling (38 per cent), and provincial-PC-supporting (46 per cent); and less wealthy (44 per cent) and educated (42 per cent). The poll found that Ford’s support was high—59 per cent—among those of Caribbean ethnic background, but cautioned there had been a small base size. The Chow supporter, Forum states, “is younger, lower income, lives in the downtown and is a provincial NDP supporter,” while the Tory voter “is oldest, wealthier, lives in Etobicoke/York or North York and votes Liberal provincially.”

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