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Poll Position: Significant Drop Among Rob Ford’s Strongest Supporters

New poll shows mayor's support weakening in Scarborough and North York.


Strongly approve: 21%

Somewhat approve: 13%

Neither approve nor disapprove: 12%

Somewhat disapprove: 12 %

Strongly disapprove: 36%

Don’t know/no answer: 6%


Strongly approve: 26%

Somewhat approve: 16%

Somewhat disapprove: 15%

Strongly disapprove: 43%

Poll taken: May 15, 2012
Sample size: 954
Margin of Error: +/-3.2%, 19 times out of 20
Methodology: Automated telephone poll
Conducted by: Stratcom

NOTES: A poll conducted this week shows that Rob Ford’s approval is weakening compared to earlier this year—and especially, that the contingent of those who strongly approve of the mayor has shrunk. John Willis is director of research for Strategic Communications, the firm that conducted the poll; yesterday he described the situation: “Ford Nation itself appears to be peeling away and that is changing the game for the mayor.” Willis explained that because the poll reveals falling support especially in North York and Scarborough—traditional strongholds for the mayor—this marks a significant shift.

The poll was taken on Tuesday night, before Ford’s surprise appearance at the PFLAG flag-raising at City Hall yesterday. The extent to which that appearance may have bolstered Ford’s numbers isn’t yet clear, though we’re guessing someone’s going to do another poll very soon to find out.

Complete poll results are available from Stratcom [PDF].


  • Anonymous

    He’ll probably get reelected.

    • qviri

      I’d doubt it actually. He won’t be underestimated again and I think his opposition will unify behind an electable opponent.

      • Anonymous

        Any poll that has had Ford winning relies on others splitting the anti-Ford vote. If one candidate runs, Ford’s house of cards collapses.

        • Anonymous

          That’s a really big IF.

      • Anonymous

        I don’t think people should focus as much on the opposition as they should on an alternate candidate on the right.

        • Anonymous

          C’mon, Mammo, now’s your time!

          • Anonymous

            Perhaps I should pre-pend `alternate` with “viable”.

  • Anonymous

    Ultimately, any candidate is a yes or no answer for those with an opinion. As his approval ratings of those with an opinion is still quite high, the biggest question I have is how many people have an opinion.

    That and were the samples for each region proportional to their weight vis-a-vis amount of electors?

  • Anonymous

    To the 42% of those with an opinion who approve, I would ask: What, exactly, do you approve of?

  • Jing Li

    I’d like a mayor that brings the people of Toronto together. This mayor has created a city of hate. The supporters are trashing everyone who disagrees with them. The opposition is trashing everyone who disagrees with them. Doesn’t really seem like anyone’s paying attention to the job that’s supposed to be done. I don’t love or hate Ford, but it’s obvious he can’t be in office with generating a circus.