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Football Folly

By Hamutal Dotan

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The Buffalo Bills playing in Toronto on December 3, 2009. Photo by JoshMcConnell.


The Brothers Ford got many Torontonians spluttering out their morning coffee today with the proclamation that they had hopes of bringing an NFL franchise to the city. Let us set aside—for a moment—the fact that the NFL has given us every indication that they aren’t interested and that previous attempts to bring a team here have failed miserably. Let us set aside that the notion of finding private partners to build a one-billion-dollar stadium (the estimated cost of an arena big enough to meet the NFL’s preferred seventy-five-thousand-seat threshhold) is right now only a pipe dream. Let us set aside the appearance that the Fords are conflating their personal hobbies with the city’s interests. Let us set aside the uneasy feeling of hearing numbers like “one billion dollars” bandied about when this week members of the public have been asking the budget committee to please, just please, reconsider one-hundred-thousand-dollar cuts to various community services.
Instead, let us focus for a moment on this: Rob Ford has contended that an NFL franchise would be a real financial boost for the city, creating jobs and generating tourist revenue that would make the team worthwhile for everyone in Toronto, football fan or not.
Is there reason to think that might be true?


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Fans and empty seats at a Bills game held at the Rogers Centre on November 7, 2010. Photo by JasonJThomas.


Not according to Brad Humphreys, a professor at the University of Alberta who specializes in the economics of sport. We spoke with him by phone earlier today:
Torontoist: What was your initial reaction to Mayor Ford’s contention that bringing an NFL franchise to Toronto would be a clear economic win for the city?
Humphreys: That he’s not very well informed of the realities about the impact of sports franchises on urban centres. I have studied this for ten years, and…I have not found one shred of evidence that suggests that the presence of a professional sports francise in a city has any tangible economic impact.
[Later, Humphreys returns to this point and adds...] He’s made the claim that one of the big economic components will be that Toronto will get to host the Super Bowl. Well in fact there’s no evidence that mega-events like the Super Bowl generate economic activity. Toronto is a tourist destination; people come to visit all the time. Yes, [the Super Bowl] brings tourists to the city, but those are not new tourists: it’s just one group of tourists—booking hotel rooms, eating in restaurants, and so on—crowding out another group that would have been there otherwise.
Ford believes that he can bring a team here, build a stadium to host them, and maintain the team’s presence in the city, all entirely without government money. In your experience is that feasible?
It’s not impossible. In fact, it would be extremely desirable that taxpayers not be involved in the subsidization of a professional sports team because there’s no tangible return for them.
Can you predict how an NFL team might affect the Argos?
Hard to tell. I know that’s the question on many people’s minds—not just about the Argos but the CFL in general. I’m not so convinced that it’s going to be a terrible thing for either the Argos or the NFL. Toronto is a big metropolitan centre and might be able to support both.
When the [Buffalo] Bills played in Toronto, ticket sales were pretty soft. Is it feasible to think that residents will come out in large enough numbers to adequately support an NFL team?
The fact of the matter is that the business model for the NFL is not driven by attendance—it is driven by national television revenues. If you can profitably operate an enterprise in Green Bay, you can do it many places.
Anything else you’d like to add?
The mayor has made the usual arguments about a world-class city. I just never know what to make of this. I think Toronto is a world class city as it is.
Finally: is this a good way for the mayor to be spending his time?
Yes, think so. You know, it’s difficult for politicians to explain easily to constituents how they’re making a difference in their lives…but if you can stand up and say “Hey, I brought the NFL to Toronto” everybody understands that. It’s an easy way for politicians to signal that they’re doing something.

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Comments

  • 00AV

    Aside from the well known fact that about 60% of the tickets to almost all of the Bills games in Toronto ended up being comp'ed to fill the stands after extremely poor sales, this is just such a pie in the sky idea that i fear Ford might try to eat it.. (a fat joke, you didn't see that coming I bet).

    Seriously though, don't you have a city to mismanage Robbie? Leave these kinds of ridiculous ideas up to mega-monopolies like ML$E and Rogers.

  • http://twitter.com/sensorglitch A.J. Sharma

    One of the problems with the Bills in Toronto is ticket cost. If you go to the website, you'll see that even the worst seats are like 100 bucks. The Leafs MIGHT get away with that kid of pricing, but this isn't Texas or New York, people aren't gonna fork that kinda money over to see the Bills.

    I'm also skeptical of the claim that Sports teams provide no economic stimulus. I've lived in Detroit. I've seen people pouring into the city to go see the Red Wings and the Lions play. Paid parking lots fill up, there are more people on the People Mover, people stop at the casino to gamble, people grab food on the way in and out.

    I've seen the same things happening when I lived in Seattle, people go out,they buy food. Vendors sell merchandise, entire areas of food vendors open up.

    So I guess my question is, what is tangible economic impact? I'll grant you Detroit isn't exactly being rebuilt based on these franchises, but to claim food, transport, and general sales is laughable, and really makes me question Professor Humphreys methodology.

  • http://twitter.com/MarkJull Mark Jull

    Could someone remind me of some things that were publicly debated and discussed, or had a design competition, and were actually built?

    I've become rather cynical about these debates and design competitions that so many are all involved in – and yet they never come to fruition. It was that recent winner (“Ballroom”) that gob-smacked me – it was never intended that anything would be done! http://news.nationalpost.com/2…/

  • http://twitter.com/maharper82 Matthew Harper

    Even though I'm a fan of the NFL, and I would probably buy season tickets if Toronto got a team, I wouldn't want the city to spend $0.01 pursuing it. Public dollars for professional sports is a farce.

  • Eric S. Smith

    I think that the argument is that the economic benefits don't outweigh the subsidies, like property tax breaks, that sports promoters seem to be able to talk governments in to giving them.

    And let's look at the economic activity that you saw being stimulated. “Paid parking lots fill up,” which I guess is great for parking lot owners, and possibly good for the city if it operates some or all of that parking at a profit. “More people on the People Mover,” but transit is an expense in most cities. “People stop at the casino to gamble,” but who'd want to encourage that? It's the best example of what this sort of enterprise is really for: relieving suckers of as much money as possible while putting on a big show. You also note that games drive food purchases, which is obviously good for food vendors, and people who sell “merchandise,” which I guess includes plenty of licensed stuff.

    So the sports promoters, parking lot owners, casino operator, and trademark holders do well, but they were already rich. For everybody else, I guess that we see some customer service jobs created on a couple of nights a week during the sports season. I'll bet that that doesn't cover the public expense of additional policing and transit on game days, and the ongoing sweetheart property tax deals and/or loan guarantees.

    You'd probably see more social benefit if the money and logistical support handed to the sports promoters went to maintaining public sports fields.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_LTBY32BDN6QMBZB54KCGZZA4OI P C

    I'm praying that the Fords, with all their ridiculousness, are merely the death rattle of Lastmanesque small-town-thinking folksy conservatism in Toronto. Every thing this administration is doing only seems to underline the fact that Toronto is a much more complicated and sophisticated place than it was even a decade ago.

  • http://paul.kishimoto.name Paul Kishimoto

    There are a few things to consider.

    One, as Eric sort of points out, there's no real economic benefit if money spent by attendees leaves the city in the form of profits for businesses not based here. For example, while the kid serving your overpriced ACC/SkyDome hot dog and beer will spend his or her wages in the city (creating further economic activity/benefit), that wage is not as inflated as the food price, so some of the money leaves town. The HST you pay on those purchases goes to the province and the federal government, not the city.

    Another thing is to consider what you are comparing the presence of the sports team to. Think of the people who would attend NFL games in Toronto—what do they currently do to entertain themselves? How do they spend their leisure time and money? I'm willing to bet they don't sit at home and stare at the wall.

    If 10 people go to each of 1000 bars and restaurants and spend $50 each, that's better than 10,000 spending $40 each at a game—even though it's less visible. As the professor suggests, you'd also have to show that tourists who come for the game would be more numerous and/or bring more money than the tourists who would otherwise occupy the same hotel rooms.

    To demonstrate “tangible impact”, it's necessary that (a) more money changes hands in the form of wages, purchases, etc., with the team than without and (b) the benefits of that increased economic activity are greater than the public (i.e. tax) costs of attracting and supporting the team.

  • the_lemur

    If we get San Diego's NFL franchise, can we get an LRT like theirs to go to the new stadium?

  • McKingford

    There is no *net* economic stimulus.

    Those people spending money in Detroit to attend Lions' games are spending entertainment dollars. In the absence of the Detroit Lions, those people would be spending their entertainment dollars on concerts, movies, etc…and they would still be spending money on sports apparel and in restaurants, just not on 8 specific Sundays a year.

    Although the Lions' move from Pontiac to downtown Detroit has resulted in a (modest) uptick in economic activity around Ford Field, that is just money that has shifted from one part of the greater Detroit area to another. A more concrete example would be when the Tigers moved from Tiger Stadium to Comerica. There may be more activity around Comerica now, but Corktown – the old Tiger Stadium neighbourhood – is dead.

  • nevilleross

    If only that could be true_I also hope that this issue and others these silly fools bring up will ensure one term for Ford when the people who elected him feel foolish enough to admit they made a mistake.

  • nevilleross

    We should be getting one now for the Pan Am games.

  • bjhtn

    It'll be in Downsview. People can take the subway. The people have spoken.

  • nevilleross

    Sorry, no, the 'people' have not spoken; just you and others like you who believe that this cockamamie scheme could or can succeed. It won't, and it's just as stupid as anything else from Rob Ford and anything else that will come from Rob Ford in the future. And as for the 'people' you speak of? I call them sheeple.

  • the_lemur

    And then a bus, if the route hasn't been eliminated.

  • http://piorkowski.ca Jarek Piórkowski

    No need for the bus – just walk through the parking lot like the rest of the 905ers.

  • bjhtn

    I guess I was not dripping with enough sarcasm…

  • bjhtn

    I guess I was not dripping with enough sarcasm…