By Kevin Plummer

Now that the dust from Toronto’s birthday parties has settled, it’s time to consider what happens next. Every day this week, Futurist offers a glimpse of the Toronto that is to come.

View Torontoist’s 2015 Toronto map (2.5 MB .PDF)

Toronto’s always been a city of neighbourhoods. By 2015, the greatest changes to the city will see existing neighbourhoods transformed and new ones finally completed—often in tandem with the development of public transportation. With Transit City fulfilling its promise, the Toronto-York Spadina Subway Extension will be in operation, making the 8.6 kilometre trip from Downsview to York University a less daunting trek. Likewise, Humber College will be better connected into the urban fabric with the opening of the Etobicoke-Finch West LRT to Finch Station. Crosstown travel will be made easier with light rail running along Sheppard East from Don Mills Station to Meadowvale; and with the existing Scarborough Rapid Transit system connected to the new Eglinton line, it’ll be possible to get from the east end to the airport or the Mississauga Transitway without a transfer. In addition, Pearson Airport will be linked to Union Station. Each of the light rail lines will help open up once-isolated neighbourhoods, like Eglinton West, as more people-friendly urban spaces and stimulate economic development.

Toronto-York Spadina Subway Extension Map from the Toronto Transit Commission.

Combined with the increased accessibility of public transit, the development of liveable, mixed-used neighbourhoods will be stimulated with bike-friendly policies. With the Bike Plan completed, no Torontonian is more than a five minute ride from the 1,000-kilometre bikeway network, a comprehensive system of 500 kilometres of bike lanes, 250 kilometres of off-road paths, and 260 kilometres of signed routes. Cycling will be an entrenched aspect of city planning, and the needs of cyclists will be incorporated into all roadway construction. Adjustments to traffic laws will allow cyclists, where safe, to make lefts where other vehicles are prohibited and to legally travel the wrong way down one-way streets. Bike storage will be available at all subway stations and city buildings. With incentives for employers to reward employees who commute by bike, and a municipal-driven Bike-to-School program, cycling will be thoroughly mainstream by 2015.
Ryerson University will have an internal system of bike paths connecting to the city’s network as part of its campus reimagining. The university will finally have Yonge Street frontage with the construction of the new student centre on the old Sam the Record Man site at Yonge and Gould that will incorporate the store’s iconic signage. With a reclad Image Arts building, buildings retrofitted with green roofs, a million square-feet added vertically to Kerr Hall, and a new tower on Gerrard Street, Ryerson will finally develop something its architecture has always been lacking: a distinct identity. This identity will be tied together through the coordinated detailing of street furniture, lighting, and a pedestrian-only plaza along Gould between Victoria and Bond. Ryerson’s transformation of its neighbourhood will be completed with the development of a Yonge Street corridor of commercial digital technology enterprises partnered with the school.

Rendering of Ryerson’s Kerr Hall by Norm Li AG + 1 from Ryerson’s Master Plan.

To the east, the transformation of Regent Park [PDF] will continue. With Phase Two to be completed by 2015, hundreds more condominiums and affordable rental units will be added in a variety of high-rise and townhouse buildings. In addition to retail and commercial spaces—all provided energy by a district energy system—there will be an abundance of amenities including a new aquatic centre, a central park, an arts and culture centre, and a children and youth hub, all of which will complete the neighbourhood’s revitalization into a mixed-income, mixed-use neighbourhood.
Closer to the lake, the CityPlace developments—in the 44-acre area bordered by the Rogers Centre, Bathurst Street, the rail lines, and the Gardiner—will be finally complete, crowned with the 68-storey Signature Tower at Spadina and Blue Jays Way. With roadways through the development finally connecting to the greater city, and the various landmark parks nearby occupied by residents and dog-walkers year-round, CityPlace will emerge as a true neighbourhood, although residents will likely advocate that a streetcar line go into operation along Bremner Boulevard. Nearby, the ICE Condos—two 65- and 55-storey towers at 16 York Street—will fill the space between the Maple Leaf Square and CityPlace.

Concept Rendering of Waterfront Boulevard, looking south at Lower Jarvis, courtesy of Waterfront Toronto.

Toronto’s waterfront will be almost unrecognizable in 2015. Should current municipal willpower remain strong, the city will dismantle a section of the Gardiner Expressway from Jarvis Street to the Don Valley Parkway. In its place we’ll have a wide, pedestrian-friendly Waterfront Boulevard accommodating a mix of commercial and residential development. Classes will be in session at George Brown’s new lakeside campus—located in the East Bayfront Precinct [PDF] on Queens Quay between Lower Jarvis and Lower Sherbourne—which will include a student residence, a recreation centre, and a Centre for Health Sciences. The River Square region of the West Don Lands will have been built out to include a mix of 850 market housing and 130 affordable housing units. Meanwhile, at the other end of the waterfront, the city will be finally trying to remediate past mistakes. The new Waterfront West LRT will stretch from Exhibition Place GO Station to Long Branch GO Station. And by 2015, if city officials have their way, BMO Field will be renovated to add additional seating for a total of 30,000 fans. The soccer stadium and transit expansion will help make Waterfront West more of a destination.
Much further north, Downsview Park [PDF] will finally complete its transformation from a military base into a recreational green space—providing a variety of indoor and outdoor sports facilities in the Action Zone—and residential community. By 2015, the Stanley Green, William Baker, Sheppard, Chesswood, and Allen neighbourhoods will be developed as sustainable communities that emphasize urban agriculture. Similarly, urban agriculture in Toronto will get a big boost with the completion of the Centre for Urban Sustainability [PDF] at the Evergreen Brick Works on Bayview Avenue.

Aerial View of the Evergreen Brick Works by DTAH from Evergreen.

The final downtown neighbourhood that’ll made over by 2015 is Yorkville. With distinctive fins on top, the striking new tower at 1 Bloor East—the corner of Yonge and Bloor—will be the haughty neighbourhood’s new landmark. With the Four Seasons Hotel & Residences West building a new 55-storey tower at 40 Yorkville Avenue, the hotel’s original (and rather dour) tower will be replaced with two Peter Clewes–designed high rises at 21 Avenue Road.
In Toronto’s cultural life, the O’Keefe/Hummingbird/Sony Centre will likely continue the downward spiral of uncouth commercial nomenclature at the same time as architect Daniel Libeskind’s compromised design for the 57-storey L Tower redefines the theatre’s presence on the skyline. Toronto will finally have a comprehensive museum to tell its story, as the former Canada Malting Silos at the foot of Bathurst Street will be transformed [PDF] into the Toronto Museum Project [PDF] at a cost of more than $100 million. With an annual operating budget of $8 million, the museum will guide visitors through the city’s 11,000-year history with exhibits, programs, rides, and special events. The site will also include an independent Global Cities Gallery exploring urban issues throughout the world, copious storage space, and an International Travelling Exhibition Hall. Unfortunately, if the Toronto District School Board’s contraction continues apace, there’ll be another twenty schools closed by 2015.
For seventeen days—between July 10 and 26—Toronto will welcome the world for the Pan American Games, followed by the Parapan Games for eight days in August. Injecting $2 billion into Toronto’s economy and attracting 250,000 tourists to the region, the Pan Am Games will mostly use existing sports venues across the region from Whitby to Hamilton and as far north as Barrie, many of those venues upgraded to meet or exceed Olympic standards. But there will be a number of major construction projects. The Athletes’ Village will likely be built near Varsity Stadium. Hamilton will construct a new stadium and aquatic centre. The centrepiece of the games, the Canadian Sports Institute Ontario and Pan Am Games Aquatics Centre, will be built at U of T’s Scarborough campus. As the major legacy developments of the games, these facilities will act as regional development centres for Toronto’s next generation of international-calibre athletes.

Metrolinx’s 15-Year Plan for the Regional Rapid Transit and Highway Network from The Big Move [PDF].

In 2015, Toronto’s population will be 2,885,035, but more importantly the region’s population will be 6,450,000. By that time, Toronto will need to be thought of not as a city but as an entire region. The Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, one aspect of Ontario’s Smart Growth Plan, will be well underway. To curb urban sprawl the plan will require that, at minimum, 40% of new housing occur within twenty-six existing urban areas. There will likely be some grumbling from residents opposed to the increased urbanization of the suburbs, but the government will press for intensification to continue. Metrolinx’s suburban transit developments will connect a number of these identified urban growth areas. In Phase 2 of Metrolinx’s Big Move, by 2015 fifteen priority projects will be constructed or under construction with the province’s $11.5 billion Move Ontario 2020 commitment. The GO Lakeshore line will be electrified and operate with added capacity, in a move to improve environmental performance and efficiency, to ensure that commuters can get from Hamilton to Toronto fifteen minutes faster. GO Regional Rail service will extend to Stoney Creek, Bolton, Aurora Road, east Markham, Seaton, and Bowmanville; and Express Rail service will extend to downtown Brampton. VIVA rapid transit will expand in York Region along Yonge Street and along an east-west spine along Highway 7 that connects with Brampton. In Halton and Peel, rapid transit along Dundas Street will link with Kipling Station and will connect with Pearson Airport along the 403. For vehicular traffic, Metrolinx will also add hundreds of kilometres of lanes to the expressway network, extend Highway 407 to Highway 35/115, and extend Highways 404, 427, and 410. In addition to carpool lots being built throughout the region, HOV lanes will be added to the 401 between the 410 and Hurontario, on the 400 between Major Mackenzie and King Road, on the 427 from the 409 to the 407, and on the QEW between Trafalgar Rd and Guelph Line.
With a municipal election in 2014, provincial elections in 2011 and 2015, and a federal election in 2012, politicians will need to have the political will to follow through on promises made in the early 2000s because of the environmental necessity. With electoral reform going through as planned, redistribution—both federally and provincially—will see a large chunk of seats re-assigned to the GTA, where most of the province’s population growth will continue to occur. It’s not a bad thing, because Toronto will have become a world-wide leader in green initiatives. At the municipal level, the city will extend its ban on the sale of bottled water to all municipal buildings by 2011, a minimum of 25% of the TTC’s energy will be drawn from green sources by 2012, and Toronto Community Housing will divert 70% of its garbage from landfills by 2015. Toronto Hydro will have completed the Scarborough Bluffs wind farm in 2011. Finally, as reported in Scientific American, Toronto’s GreenField Ethanol Inc. will “develop a biochemical process for making lignocellulosic ethanol” to produce seventeen million litres per year of ethanol from corn cobs—not from edible corn.
By 2015, Toronto will be transformed in its neighbourhoods, public transit, cultural and sporting infrastructure, green enterprise, and outward intensification. Progressive transportation policies and an emphasis on mixed-use, neighbourhood-scale development, however, will help ensure that no matter how big the city becomes, Toronto remains a people-friendly, liveable urban centre.
Research compiled by Hamutal Dotan, Jerad Gallinger, Stephen Michalowicz, and Kevin Plummer. “Toronto in 2015″ master map created by Brenda Petroff.