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Torontoist is officially in election mode. In the run-up to the big day, we'll be profiling some of the most closely contested ridings in the GTA, looking for the bellwethers and offering snapshots of electoral districts in transition.
Photo of Peggy Nash by Miles Storey/Torontoist.
Parkdale-High Park is the stuff of leftie dreams, a riding where the only real question is whether you hate Stephen Harper, or really hate Stephen Harper. Bisected by Roncesvalles Avenue, both the Parkdale and High Park sides have strong allegiances to the left wing. Economic disparities between the neighbourhoods notwithstanding, this is an electoral district that takes its social justice, urban development, and environmental issues seriously. With the exception of a one-term Conservative victory during the Mulroney tidal wave of ‘84, the riding has consistently elected left wing representatives since its inception in 1976. In 2006, the Conservative candidate received just 17% support. This is perhaps one of the few ridings in the country where worries about vote-splitting have never gotten on the radar: there’s no concern that those on the left will inadvertently bring a Tory to power by dividing their support among several candidates because, even divided, that support substantially overwhelms the small right-of-centre presence. When the Conservatives talk about breaking into urban Canada, this is not what they have in mind.
This year’s contest features two high-profile politicians in an evenly matched contest, the outcome of which even the candidates themselves are unwilling to predict. In the orange corner: Buzz Hargrove protégé, NDP Industry Critic, one-term incumbent Peggy Nash. In the red corner: one-time Daily Bread Food Bank director, former Liberal MPP and Education Minister, and failed candidate for his party’s leadership, Gerrard Kennedy. Nash won the riding in 2006, in a hard-fought battle against Sarmite Bulte, by less than 5% of the vote. This year the margin of victory is likely going to be smaller.
So far there hasn’t been a breakout moment for either candidate, and no single issue has been capturing the press. Ultimately, both Nash and Kennedy are well-liked, and many voters have been saying that they wish both could become parliamentarians. The debate here isn’t over a fundamental shift in how we ought to be governed or the questions most worthy of our attention. The Tories have been looking, this election and last, for new frontiers, aiming to make inroads in the major cities, and claiming that the majority of us agree with their proclaimed values. Parkdale-High Park, Liberal and New-Democratic alike, is the heart of the push back.
With growing chatter about the Conservatives being back in minority territory and a corresponding increase in talk of a Liberal-NDP (or NDP-Liberal) coalition government, the outcome of races like Parkdale-High Park becomes ever-more important. Most Canadians are still opposed to such a prospect, but as they get used to the idea, that may well change. If the NDP can successfully retain ridings like this in the face of Liberal challenges, Jack Layton will strengthen his position relative to Dion in any potential negotiations over a coalition. Alternately, should the Liberals manage to wrest control away from the NDP (Trinity-Spadina is another crucial one to watch), it'll give Dion a bit of leverage in trying to maintain his position that the Liberals ought to keep going it alone. In either case, the victor here will be at the vanguard of the opposition to Conservative (and conservative) governance.
Bottom photo by Hamutal Dotan.
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There are so many inaccuracies in this article it is hard to pick a starting point. Lets try the beginning:
(1)Parkdale-High Park is the stuff of leftie dreams, a riding where the only real question is whether you hate Stephen Harper, or really hate Stephen Harper.
The governing assumption that those who do not vote for Harper hate Harper (or really hate Harper) is false. This is demonstrated by, for instance, higher personal approval ratings than party approval ratings.
(2) Bisected by Roncesvalles Avenue, both the Parkdale and High Park sides have strong allegiances to the left wing.
Also false. I believe Nash is the first NDP MP from either riding. Both ridings have routinely elected Liberals, who are a party of the centre.
(3) This is perhaps one of the few ridings in the country where worries about vote-splitting have never gotten on the radar.
There are 301 ridings, the outcome in at least 250 do not depend on vote-splitting (which I define as you imply, where a third candidate slips up the middle between two "favoured" candidates). The impact of vote splitting between the NDP and the Liberals, a subset of this, is even smaller. I can't think of a current Conservative MP who was elected due to a NDP/Liberal split (I am happy for readers to prove me wrong on this).
(4) Re: coalition government, this is either the wayward musings of campaign reporters bored with the talking points they are being fed or well-planted NDP wet dream in ink. The NDP lose support at the ballot box because voters realize they cannot form a government. Implying that they will have some role in governing is merely a buttress against this. Even giving a moment to consider the historical animosity between the parties, the disproportionate benefit to the parties in question (the NDP gets a result it could never achieve on its own while the Liberals could form the next government), the irreconcilable policy differences on, for example, fundamental economic matters, form of carbon policy, etc. should lead you to conclude the same.
If you are going to cover an election riding on a local blog, why do it from the horse race perspective beloved by the national media and ignore the local issues? What distinguishes Nash and Kennedy on a local level? The reader finishes your piece and has no idea, having been subjected instead to a poorly-argued hobby-horse thesis that melts under scrutiny.
"(2) Bisected by Roncesvalles Avenue, both the Parkdale and High Park sides have strong allegiances to the left wing.
Also false. I believe Nash is the first NDP MP from either riding. Both ridings have routinely elected Liberals, who are a party of the centre."
At the federal level, I can't recall another NDP MP, but Cheri DiNovo represents the riding provincially (winning in both a by-election and the last provincial election) and David Miller, an NDP member until last year, won three elections in the riding municipally (though it is split at the municipal level), as a metro councillor and two terms on the amalgamated city council. Currently Bill Saundercook (is he right wing, left wing, centrist?) represents the west end of the riding on city council and Gord Perks, very much on the left wing, represents the east end.
In my estimation, I wouldn't call it a left-wing paradise, but it's been steadily shifting that way over the last few elections, while still holding some centrist sentiment.
On the issue of a coalition government, all of the press it has gotten is simply coming from one statement from Layton in which he didn't outright rule the idea out, though he's never been a coalition cheerleader either and yes, there's too much animosity between the two parties for it to work for long. Though I think that coalition governments can work effectively, in the case of this election campaign, I agree with you that it's pure fantastical speculation by journalists.
Just because it's been more or less consistently Liberal/NDP doesn't make the seat's representation "consistently left wing", at least by today's standards: reflecting the seat's one-time powerhouse Polish Catholic constituency, former Liberal MP Stan Haidasz was very much in the party's SoCon wing...
@ x the x
-------------
Last time I checked, there are 308 ridings.
Perhaps you're using the house count from
before the last census which is when seats
start being redistributed and new ridings
created.
x_the_x:
Don't really agree or disagree with most of your points except #3.
It may not be quite as bad as the Right had it in the days of the PC & Reform, but there are quite a few ridings where the combined NDP + Liberal vote is more than that of a sitting Tory MP.
Many Tories from Ontario are in that boat:
John Baird (25,607 vs. 20,250 + 9,626)
Pierre Lemieux (22,990 vs. 22,787 + 7,049)
Patrick Brown (23,999 vs. 22,476 + 6,984)
Bev Oda (27,087 vs. 17,290 + 9,946)
Rick Norlock (25,833 vs. 22,566 + 11,334)
Dean Del Mastro (22,774 vs. 20,532 + 16,286)
Bruce Stanton (23,266 vs. 22,078 + 8,132)
Colin Carrie (20,657 vs. 12,831 + 17,905)
Jim Flaherty (29,294 vs. 25,882 + 8,716)
David Sweet (24,530 vs. 21,656 + 13,376)
Mike Wallace (28,030 vs. 25,431 + 8,090)
Rob Nicholson (23,485 vs. 20,092 + 12,209)
Richard Dysktra (21,669 vs. 21,423 + 11,848)
Gary Goodyear (25,337 vs. 19,419 + 9,794)
Harold Glenn Albrecht (20,615 vs. 19,246 + 7,445)
Dave Van Kesteren (20,820 vs. 15,204 + 10,875)
Jeff Watson (23,125 vs. 19,510 + 12,993)
Bev Shipley (25,170 vs. 16,835 + 9,330)
Pat Davidson (21,841 vs. 17,649 + 10,673)
Tony Clement (18,513 vs. 18,485 + 5,472)
That's half of the 40 seats the Tories took in the 2006 election. It's also a lot of their senior ministers.
John Duncan, thanks for that. I am clearly wrong on that point, though I think the phenomenon of vote splitting is more sophisticated than adding the Lib and NDP columns together, but I take your point. Mine was that the NDP and Lib represent different voter interests and preferences and usefully so, and I stand by it.
Should be "Gerard" not "Gerrard".
I'll take the odd vote splitting over a two party system like in the US any day.
Since when are Liberals a leftist party? They couldn't muster any opposition to the Conservatives in Parliament, should that be rewarded?
The Liberals are leftist. So are the Conservatives. They're both just not as leftist as you'd like them to be.
I wrote Peggy Nash to ask her how she would be voting on C-61 and to express my concerns with it and never heard back. I keep hoping she'll come to my door so I can ask what's up with that.
I wish I'd been able to make it to the debate.
Peggy Nash is going to win, it'll be very close down to a few hundred votes, but she'll ultimately end up the winner.
I wish Kennedy had chosen another riding in which to run, he underestimated Peggy Nash and he deserves to be in parliament for the libs.
The conservatives are not leftist PIckletoes. Harper used to head up the Reform party (no one seems to remember) that had a hard-right stance on everything. He defected form the PC to Alliance and finally settled on the reform the far-right. The present day cons are neo-cons, ex PM and longtime PC leader Joe Clark himself has said publicly that "he has no party".
Mark Ostler: FYI Bill Saundercook (City Councillor for Ward 13) is reportedly a liberal centrist but he gets along well enough with Nash & DiNovo. Not so much though with the Ward 14 Councillor Perks.