Rocket Talk: When's the TTC Going to Roll Out More Fare Collection Methods?
Newsstand: November 9, 2009
Zack Taylor in Disney Mama Drama
Santa's Weston Workshop
The Daily Photoist: November 9, 2009
September and October have been quite the wild ride. With the $700 billion financial rescue package, a Canadian federal election, the U.S. presidential race, and the threat of corporate bankruptcies, it's been hard to de-politicize the current economic environment and take note of the fundamental trends at play. For most of 2008, Toronto didn’t need to worry about this big picture—the TSX was the world's leading (or least worst) stock market and its economy didn't look too shabby. Recently, though, the situation has deteriorated, and things in Toronto don't look very promising now: since September 1, the TSX has lost 32% of its value. To make things worse, its daily volatility has been obscenely high and 5–8% intra-day swings are not uncommon. Why does this matter? Because the investment savings or RRSP you've been trying to start (or have continued to fund) will also be down by 32% on average, and the baby boomers' pension plans are taking a deep hit.
Now, the next blow: the plummeting Canadian dollar. On Wednesday, the loonie closed below US$0.80 for the first time since 2005; as of this morning, it will take you $1.27 Canadian to buy one U.S. dollar. Over the past thirty days, that Boxing Day trip across the border you were thinking about taking has become 23% more expensive, as did the cheaper cars that Canadians have been buying in the U.S. Just like the TSX, this precipitous drop in the Canadian dollar’s value emerged because of falling commodity prices and in almost no time, Toronto, and Canada, has caught up with the rest of the world.
Before you get freaked out, remember that some good can come from a devalued loonie. Tourism in Toronto, for one, may get a boost. As for the ailing manufacturing sector, a lower Canadian dollar will make Canadian exports cheaper for Americans, helping to stanch the personnel cutbacks. Finally, if the lower value persists, U of T could increase its North American profile and become a desirable target for American students (just like McGill, which has increasingly promoted itself as a cheaper alternative to U.S. schools with the same quality of education).
Unfortunately, no one really knows when the market will end its fall or at what level the Canadian dollar will reach a bottom. But without a doubt, unlike the bickering down south, focus must be placed on the data if Toronto, and Canada, wants to be protected from whatever the future may hold. The economy as a whole can no longer be ignored because the big banks that everyone loves to hate are now only part of the problem.
Photo by PDPhotography from the Torontoist Flickr Pool.
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The manufacturing industry has taken such a huge hit it will take a while before it recovers. Sure, with the weakened dollar and the need to bolster its economy, the US would gladly open its doors again to doing business with Canadian Tool & Die companies and the sort, but to me it will be too little too late. Too much dependency has been put on the US and the idea of jumping back on that wagon I am sure is making people paranoid. India, China, Mexico seems to be the best options so far and we're probably better off strengthening our ties with Europe then renewing the bonds with the US to the state they used to be.
When the dollar was high and the price of oil was high, all the news was bad...
Now, the dollar is low, and the price of oil is much lower, and still, all the news is bad.
Not only does panic seem to be feeding on itself, but it is almost as if the newspapers and other media companies have it in their best interests to be worried.
Where are these tourists going to be coming from exactly?
Gaulder - Supposedly we're in talks for a Canada-EU Free Trade Agreement. The details were supposed to be released a few days after the election (why would voters want to be informed about that?) but I haven't heard anything myself.
friend68 - "Everything's Fine" doesn't sell newspapers. (My paranoid conspiracy theory: the market plunge was orchestrated by the usual suspects to make a grab for controlling interest in various companies while bringing the US gov't to its knees.)
Rek, yeah I read a small blurb about that. I might like Harper more if he doesn't screw that up. We need better foundations for our economy.
Re: Supposedly we're in talks for a Canada-EU Free Trade Agreement. The details were supposed to be released a few days after the election (why would voters want to be informed about that?)
I can't take credit for this, but here is Paul Wells' "Highlights from the two-year (really-badly-)hidden agenda", which kind of demolishes your "point".
http://blog.macleans.ca/2008/10/17/canada-eu-free-trade-heres-your-briefing-book-dont-leave-it-somewhere/#more-13403
Don't tell the Council of Canadians, they'll have to delete "hidden agenda" from their template letter.
x_the_x: I think you missed my "point". It certainly wasn't mentioned in the Con's election campaign, prime time for "informing the voters".
Wouldn't market access to "half a billion people" and an "economy the size of the US" be quite the coup in economically troubled times, for a party rightly accused of putting forth a "stay the course" plan and not giving a shit about what it means to Canadians to have their jobs and savings at risk?
All of the links Wells provides are from mid-2007 except the brief outline of what Charest and the EU would talk about last May (80% of the article is a list of who would attend). I don't read French (like most Canadians) so I don't know what's said in the one le Devoir link from this year. Another thing worth noting is that announcing feasibility studies is hardly the same as announcing a go-ahead or exact details or what they mean for Canadians. And as one commenter points out, "economic ties" which is calculated to be vague and noncommittal, is the phrase preferred over "free trade agreement", which reminds Canadians of NAFTA.
I was going to do a hurray for Americans coming to UofT but then again, Canadians often make it seem as though they don't really want Americans here (cough cough).
...So which one is it, Canada?
Self-loathing Americans should do ok here.
rek, the policy of successive governments following the 1988 election, of both stripes, have been to persue bi- and multi-lateral trade agreements and investment agreements. Promotion of foreign trade has been one of the two top foreign policy objectives of DFAIT (or whatever its called now) in that time. Dozens of agreements have been signed, hundreds of WTO meetings attended, etc. I don't know why this particular example of "business as usual" needs to be highlighted on the election trail (of course, it was always available to the anti-trade opposition to bring it up, but Layton was busy pretending he was comfortable with the idea of a market economy and May was embarassing herself misinterpreting NAFTA).
I too find it hard to believe, but there is still a rump of anti-empiricists who doubt the benefits of trade. Even the CoC type opposition realises the paucity of coherent arguments they have at their disposal, which is why they revert to scaremongering about investor-state disputes, bulk water exports, health care private infiltration and the like.
This is the point of the hidden agenda crack - what is there to hide?
(Scene: a government bureaucrat in a cheap suit enters a boardroom, filled with other government bureaucrats in better suits (they are European, after all), and, voices barely audible, they discuss tariff harmonization and re-work well-worn GATT clauses to include camembert cheese. - End scene).